The two hottest National League teams over the past two months also happen to have been waiting the longest to win their first World Series. The Brewers (37–10 since June 20) and the Padres (29–20) have been around since 1969. The way they have been playing baseball gives their fans reasonable hope that this is finally the year.
Both teams are fun to watch. Both excel at traditional baseball values. The Brewers and Padres each rank among the three best pitching staffs in baseball, the four best defensive units as far as turning batted balls into outs and the five toughest teams to strike out. What’s not to like?
They don’t hit many home runs.
There is a difference between playing regular season baseball and tournament baseball. If the Brewers or Padres are going to win the World Series, they must defy a decade of data that suggests you need more power than those teams possess to win it all.
Milwaukee ranks 18th in home runs and 13th in slugging. San Diego is even more power starved. It ranks 29th in home runs and 25th in slugging.
Why does that matter? The past five World Series champions ranked among the four top home run hitting teams in baseball (in order from 2020: 1, 3, 4, 3, 3).
No team has won the World Series ranked in the bottom half of home runs or with fewer than 199 home runs since the 2015 Kansas City Royals, who ranked 24th with 139 homers. The Brewers are on pace to hit 174 homers. The Padres are on pace to hit 136 homers, which would be the lowest for a full-season world champion in 28 years.
We love to think that putting the ball in play and small ball wins in October. That may have been true once. Not now. The game is far different today than in 2015, when a team like the Royals could slash their way to a title. Compared to 2015, today’s game has 13% more homers, 10% more walks, 7% more strikeouts, 4% fewer hits and 52% fewer sacrifice hits.
Consider how baseball changed in the postseason last year as compared to the regular season. As you might expect, hitting and slugging decreased. The batting average dropped by 12 points. Counterintuitively, home runs went .
2024 MLB Hitting
|
AVG
|
SLG
|
H/G
|
HR/G
|
Regular Season
.243
.399
16.4
2.24
Postseason
.231
.378
15.3
2.28
You would think small ball tactics would play up in a more difficult hitting environment. But home runs became even more important. As hits become rarer, the quick strike of the home run swing becomes more necessary. Winning a game without a home run was harder to do in the postseason last year than in the regular season.
Team Games With No Home Runs, 2024
|
W–L
|
Pct.
|
Pct. of Wins
|
Regular Season
519–1,123
.316
21.4%
Postseason
9–20
.310
20.9%
The notion that teams who put the ball in play are best equipped for the postseason has not been true for years. The correlation between winning it all and home runs has become much stronger than the one between winning it all and avoiding strikeouts.
MLB Ranks by World Series Champions
|
Home Runs
|
Strikeouts
|
2024 Dodgers
3
12
2023 Rangers
3
17
2022 Astros
4
2
2021 Braves
3
20
2020 Dodgers
1
4
2019 Nationals
13
4
2018 Red Sox
9
5
2017 Astros
2
1
2016 Cubs
13
22
Average
5.7
9.7
Ideally, you want it all, like the championship Astros teams: power with the ability to make contact. But if you had to lean toward one, you would take the power.
Milwaukee is not power-starved. Though it ranks below average in home runs, its power is on the upswing, as the addition of Andrew Vaughn and the revival of Brice Turang lengthen the lineup. The Brewers have improved their slug for a third straight month. Their .532 slug this month threatens to set a franchise record, eclipsing the .510 mark from June 1982. If they keep this up, we will have to look at them differently.
MORE: SI:AM | The Brewers’ Streak by the Numbers
San Diego has a low power ceiling, though the deadline additions of Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn help. Three players—Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Gavin Sheets—have hit almost half of the team’s home runs (52 of 105). Only four teams in the wild card era ever made the playoffs with a slug worse than the Padres’ .382 mark (2014 Cardinals, Royals and Athletics and the '22 Rays).
The Padres have the potential for more power, especially if Jackson Merrill (six HR in 81 games since returning from a hamstring injury) recovers to his 2024 form and Tatis (no home runs in his past 79 at-bats) gets on a run, though expectations should be recalibrated. Since he returned from his PED suspension and shoulder surgery, Tatis has good power but not the elite power he showed in his first three seasons.
Tatis Jr. Splits by Age
|
G
|
SLG
|
EV
|
OPS+
|
20-22
273
.596
93.2
160
24-26
364
.456
92.7
120
The Brewers and Padres each have a well-defined identity and a clear path to the title. Milwaukee pressures teams with baserunning, bunting, putting the ball in play, catching the ball and clean baseball. Their pitching staff has wipeout stuff at the front of the rotation and back end of the bullpen. In a telling measurement of pure stuff—and a harbinger of what it takes to win in October—Brewers pitchers allow the fifth lowest slugging percentage on pitches
The toughest team to slug against on challenge stuff? The Padres. Their path to victory is built on putting the ball in play and shortening games with a deep bullpen.
Neither team relies heavily on power. If the usual rules of engagement apply to tournament baseball, the Yankees (first in home runs), Dodgers (second) and Mariners (third) are best equipped for the title, with the Cubs (seventh), Mets (eighth) and Tigers (ninth) in the next tier.
But past is not always prologue. Home runs may be the coin of the postseason realm in recent years, but at any point that can change in the small sample size theater of the postseason. The Brewers and Padres were not built to follow the unwritten rules of October, but to break them.